Apple is turning into Microsoft 2.0
Apple, once the rebel innovator, now mirrors the very corporate giant it once mocked—Microsoft in its darkest, most complacent days.
Don't get me wrong here.
Microsoft did very well under Steve Ballmer (2000–2013). Their annual revenue increased more than 3X and their annual profits more than doubled during the period.
While the financial outlook was positive, the following concerns persisted:
Innovation Stagnation: The company missed the mobile revolution with Windows Phone failing to gain traction against iOS and Android. Bing also struggled against Google in search.
Stock Price Stagnation: Despite tripling revenue and doubling profits, Microsoft’s stock price remained flat reflecting investor concerns about missed opportunities.
Antitrust Challenges: Early 2000s antitrust lawsuits diverted resources and constrained strategic moves.
Cultural Issues: Ballmer’s aggressive, competitive culture was criticized for stifling innovation which lead to a focus on protecting existing franchises rather than exploring new markets.
Now, let’s compare this with Tim Cook since 2011.
Revenue has grown around 3.5X and net income grew by around 3.7X.
Now, let’s talk about some of their recent problems:
Decreasing iPhone Sales: As the smartphone market matures, iPhone sales have slowed, with a notable 10% year-over-year decline in the first quarter of 2024 (lovemoney).
Apple's high product expectations and focus on incremental improvements have led to criticism that it is slower to innovate compared to competitors like Samsung (in hardware) and Google (in services) (investopedia).
Cook and Ballmer significantly increased their companies' revenues and profits, but critics argue that both leaders focused more on financial metrics rather than fostering innovation. Cook's Apple Watch and AirPods compared to Ballmer's Xbox and Kinect which had mixed success.
Drop in User Experience: users are reporting lag in notes & freeform, overheating and pencil issues. In addition, repeated updates add features (like Apple Intelligence) without fixing core problems and Apple's traditional support approach—replacing hardware—doesn’t help with software-rooted bugs (eliseomartelli).
Product issues: Vision Pro is Over-Engineered & Directionless. Apple Intelligence is Underwhelming. iOS 26 Prioritizes Flash Over Function. iPhone 17 Air: Solving a Nonexistent Problem. Overall, focus has shifted from essential, optimized tools to gimmicks. Apple’s core philosophy of thoughtful, efficient design is fading.
Apple is experiencing a decline in revenue from some of it’s products.
From Pirate Flag to Corporate Empire
“It’s better to be a pirate than to join the Navy.”, Quote Steve
Contrast that ethos with Tim Cook’s Apple in 2025 — a $3 trillion fortress of walled gardens, App Store tax and services-led growth.
Thesis: Apple has become what it once mocked — an entrenched, protectionist platform giant with Microsoft’s 1990s playbook, only sleeker.
Apple has become too big to experiment.
App Store Tyranny = Internet Explorer 6 Moment
Parallels:
Microsoft bundled IE6 into Windows, crushed Netscape.
Apple forces Safari/WebKit, blocks third-party browser engines, throttles progressive web apps (PWAs) until forced by the EU.
Key Point: Apple is no longer neutral — it's using platform dominance to suffocate alternatives just like Microsoft did in 1998.
Developer Hostility Mirrors Microsoft’s Dark Days
Microsoft made devs dependent on proprietary APIs (e.g., COM) while blocking Java from becoming a universal standard.
Apple today:
Private APIs in iOS not accessible to third-party devs.
Sherlocking: Apple copies and kills indie apps (e.g., Camo, Duet Display, Tile).
Third-party keyboard devs (like Gboard, SwiftKey) limited by privacy restrictions Apple doesn’t apply to its own tools.
Key Point: Apple is building a two-tier ecosystem just like Windows was before Nadella opened it up.
Innovation Drought: The iPhone Is the New Windows XP
The following graph indicates iPhone’s dominance in Apple’s revenue share but the revenue growth rate is dropping. This is kind of similar to the Windows situation.
Source: Statista
iPhone design hasn’t fundamentally changed since iPhone X (2017).
Compared to Microsoft’s XP-to-Vista-era stagnation.
Recent flops or safe bets:
Vision Pro: $3,500 dev kit with no killer use case.
Siri is still embarrassingly behind GPT-4 or even Alexa.
Compare: Microsoft ignored mobile until it was too late; Apple is sleeping on AI.
Key Point: Apple is more obsessed with monetization than creating the next iPhone moment.
Culture Shift: Apple No Longer Cares About ‘Delight’
Under Steve Jobs: User-first design (e.g., iPod click wheel, iPhone multitouch).
Under Tim Cook:
Services, ads, revenue per user.
Example: Shoving ads into App Store search results — user-hostile and scam-prone.
Letting Goldman Sachs run wild with Apple Card.
Morale issues & secrecy:
Jony Ive left in 2019.
Increasing reports of employee dissatisfaction, especially on Vision Pro teams.
Key Point: Apple is trading soul for spreadsheets — same thing that made Microsoft stumble pre-2014.
Regulatory Déjà Vu: Microsoft Antitrust Redux
U.S. DOJ vs Microsoft (1998): anti-competitive bundling.
U.S. DOJ vs Apple (2024): anti-steering, App Store tax.
Source: Statista
Apple’s Response Mirrors Microsoft’s:
Legal hair-splitting.
Dragging feet on compliance (e.g., in EU with sideloading).
Playing dumb on technical sabotage (like breaking PWAs).
Key Point: Apple is now in full defensive mode, a sign of empire rot.
Ecosystem Lock-In: A Walled Garden Is Still a Cage
Microsoft locked users into Windows + Office.
Apple today: iMessage lock-in (green bubbles), AirDrop, Apple Watch exclusivity with iPhone.
Aggressively blocking cross-platform interoperability (e.g., resisting RCS for years).
Compare: Microsoft's forced Office/IE bundling vs Apple’s forced continuity ecosystem.
Risk Ahead: Apple Is Vulnerable, Just Like Microsoft Was
Microsoft missed the mobile revolution → opened door to iPhone and Android.
Apple is now:
Behind on AI.
Weak on services outside of iOS.
Losing favor with developers.
If OpenAI, Google, or a new hardware-software upstart nails ambient computing or AI-first OS, Apple could get blindsided.
Key Point: Apple’s decline won’t come from collapse — it will come from irrelevance.
Apple Needs Its Own Nadella Moment
Apple needs to evolve just like Microsoft did under Satya Nadella: embrace openness, re-earn trust and refocus on innovation.
Open question: Can Tim Cook or his successor pivot or is Apple too addicted to control?
Final gut-punch line: Apple used to “think different.” Now, it thinks like Microsoft circa 2001 — and that should scare everyone.